Five Predictions for 2026
Most people are still playing the old game
Here are my predictions for the games industry in 2026.
1. Breakout gaming winners will largely come from Turkey and China.
Hard times hit the softest players first. In Europe, there hasn’t been a single breakout games company founded in the 2020s. Compare that to the 2010s and the contrast is brutal. This is no longer a game of brute force production. The winners will understand that making games is not about making games. It’s about building a product and distribution engine capable of challenging incumbents in a believable, smart, and capital-efficient way. Creativity still matters, but only when it aligns with the structural shift in how games are discovered, distributed, and consumed.
2. Venture capital will continue to retreat from early-stage gaming.
The reasons are familiar: studios struggle to raise follow-on rounds, something I’ve covered extensively on my Substack. But there’s another dynamic quietly reshaping the market. Asian strategic investors, long active as LPs in gaming funds, have built internal teams to invest directly into studios. They’ll still value exposure to Western markets, but not through a dozen funds, where they’ve in the past been limited partners in, to gain access. They’ll concentrate capital into a small number of vehicles that deliver real intelligence and results. The rest will be left behind, meaning less bets in new games companies.
3. The EU will make moves against Roblox and other platforms targeting children.
After my November piece on Gen Alpha and their gaming habits, I received several DMs pointing toward an inevitable regulatory push in Europe. I predict that dree-to-play platforms targeting adolescents will face stricter age-verification requirements. It’s uncertain how strongly the regulatory push will be in 2026, but directionally, this feels like an unavoidable move. Look at Norway, who is not even an EU country, has just created the most strict social media age restrictions in Western countries.
4. AI-driven efficiency will unlock an explosion of bootstrapped startups.
Generalist, jack-of-all-trades founders will increasingly choose to bootstrap. Why raise a pre-seed when $200 a month buys you an AI coding partner that outperforms what used to be a six-figure hire? The escalating competition between major LLM companies is making these tools smarter and more creative at a staggering pace. Updates arrive weekly. Bootstrapping for a year, building real traction, and skipping pre-seed entirely will become a rational default. And once you do that, the question becomes uncomfortable but obvious: why raise dilutive capital at all? Why invite VC overlords into the cap table? 😉
5. Mid-sized studios will grow as leadership moves closer to product and marketing.
The era of distant management is over. In order for gaming companies to grow, leadership must engage directly with product decisions and distribution strategy. That means removing blockers, systems, and sometimes even people they once trusted but who can’t operate at the required level anymore. Growth won’t come from more process. It will come from sharper judgment, faster decisions, and brutal prioritization.
That’s a wrap. Happy new year 2026!